[1]赵乐新,骆正山,王晓敏.点腐蚀碳素钢管系统随机失效概率模型研究[J].中国材料进展,2020,(12):962-967.[doi:10.7502/j.issn.1674-3962.201907016]
 ZHAO Lexin,LUO Zhengshan,WANG Xiaomin.Study on the Stochastic Failure Probability Model of Carbon Steel Pipe System with Pitting Corrosion[J].MATERIALS CHINA,2020,(12):962-967.[doi:10.7502/j.issn.1674-3962.201907016]
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点腐蚀碳素钢管系统随机失效概率模型研究()
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中国材料进展[ISSN:1674-3962/CN:61-1473/TG]

卷:
期数:
2020年第12期
页码:
962-967
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the Stochastic Failure Probability Model of Carbon Steel Pipe System with Pitting Corrosion
文章编号:
1674-3962(2020)12-0962-06
作者:
赵乐新骆正山王晓敏
(西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西 西安 710055)
Author(s):
ZHAO Lexin LUO Zhengshan WANG Xiaomin
(School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China)
关键词:
碳素钢管点腐蚀失效概率随机模型
Keywords:
carbon steel pipe pitting corrosion failure probability stochastic model
分类号:
TE988.2
DOI:
10.7502/j.issn.1674-3962.201907016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
服役中碳素钢管的失效对管道结构安全造成影响,为了有效预测碳素钢管系统的失效概率和剩余寿命,引入了随时间变化的系统失效概率计算方法,以此为基础判断点腐蚀碳素钢管是否需要进行维修或更换。依据时变可靠性分析方法,结合首次穿越概率理论,在点腐蚀碳素钢管剩余强度中引入随机参数的基础上,建立点腐蚀碳素钢管随机失效概率模型,对点腐蚀引起的失效概率进行量化分析,为科学地确定碳素钢管系统的失效时间提供了理论依据。结合实例分析,借助蒙特卡洛模拟方法验证了所建模型的可行性,通过相关参数分析明确了影响点腐蚀碳素钢管系统失效的关键因素。结果显示,所构建的模型可以合理预测点腐蚀碳素钢管的失效概率,帮助管理者确定碳素钢管系统实施维修和保养的最佳时间。
Abstract:
In order to effectively predict the failure probability and residual life of carbon steel pipe system with pitting corrosion, a method for calculating the failure probability of carbon steel pipe system varying with time is introduced. This method can be used to judge whether the carbon steel pipe with pitting corrosion needs to be repaired or replaced. Based on the time-varying reliability analysis method and the first crossing probability theory, the stochastic failure probability model of carbon steel pipe with pitting corrosion is established by introducing stochastic parameters into the residual strength calculation of carbon steel pipe with pitting corrosion. The model quantifies the failure probability caused by pitting corrosion and provides a theoretical basis for determining the failure time of carbon steel pipe system scientifically. The feasibility of this model is verified by Monte Carlo simulation with an example, and the key factors affecting the failure of carbon steel pipe system with pitting corrosion are identified through the analysis of relevant parameters. The results show that the model can reasonably predict the failure probability of carbon steel pipes with pitting corrosion and help the managers to determine the best time for maintenance and repairment of carbon steel pipe systems.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-07-21修回日期:2019-11-19 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41877527);陕西省社科基金资助项目(2018S34)第一作者:赵乐新,男,1990年生,博士研究生通讯作者:骆正山,男,1969年生,教授,博士生导师, Email: luozhengshan@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-11-01